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From the Editor
Trump’s foreign policy signals a force-first approach, unsettling allies and reshaping diplomatic norms, while courts at home emerge as a decisive check on executive power, blocking sweeping clean-energy cuts. Davos reflects a shift from growth planning to crisis preparation, as global leaders recalibrate expectations amid uncertainty over tariffs, alliances, and territorial disputes.
China’s population continues to decline, while India’s, Nigeria’s, and Brazil’s grow. Policymakers in these countries must consider not only national demographics but also how population trends influence global economic stability, and the strain on the Earth’s finite resources and long-term sustainability.
David Eifion Williams
Editor & Founder
TOP STORY
Davos Faces a Hard Turn
Davos shifts from growth planning to crisis preparation as US policy unpredictability dominates.
Global leaders in Davos confront risk from formerly unexpected quarters.
Global leaders arriving in Davos confront Donald Trump's threats over Greenland, tariffs, and NATO commitments—including a public link between Greenland and his Nobel Peace Prize loss—dominating private discussions. For the first time in years, the summit's focus has shifted from growth opportunities to contingency planning.
The tone of the summit reflects the shift: less about opportunity, more about contingency. European leaders are preparing for a transactional transatlantic relationship, while companies are reviewing supply chains and capital allocation models built on assumptions of predictable US engagement.
Several delegations describe a return to “pre‑alignment” geopolitics, where disruption and strategic uncertainty take precedence over the long‑term multilateral cooperation that once defined Davos.
Davos is no longer about consensus—it's about preparing for what comes next when the old rules no longer apply.
HOME AFFAIRS
Insurrection Act Back in Focus
Federal troops on standby as Minnesota protests test presidential authority.
The Trump Administration weighs potential use of the Insurrection Act.
The Pentagon has ordered approximately 1,500 active-duty soldiers to prepare for possible deployment to Minnesota after President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act. The troops are from Alaska's 11th Airborne Division, which specializes in Arctic warfare though Trump later told reporters he didn't think there was "any reason right now to use it."
The threat followed the ICE shooting death of Renee Nicole Good, a 37-year-old mother and American citizen, which sparked nationwide protests. Some 3,000 federal immigration agents are already deployed in Minneapolis, outnumbering the city's 600 police officers by five to one.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has not requested federal military assistance and has appealed to Trump to "turn the temperature down." State Attorney General Keith Ellison has signaled any deployment would be challenged as violating state sovereignty under the 10th Amendment
The standby order marks the closest approach to using the Act since 1992, when it was last invoked during the Los Angeles riots. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey called potential military deployment a "shocking step."
WHAT THE MEDIA BURIED
Global Cybercrime Marketplace Disrupted
For as little as $24 a month, the cybercrime service RedVDS sold criminals access to disposable virtual computers that made fraud cheap, scalable, and difficult to trace. Since March 2025, activity linked to the platform has driven at least $40 million in reported fraud losses in the United States, including $7.3 million stolen from an Alabama pharmaceutical company supplying cancer and mental‑health drugs, and nearly $500,000 taken from a Florida condominium association.
Microsoft has now moved to shut the service down through civil action, but investigators warn these losses represent only a fraction of the real financial damage.Hidden debts in low-income nations increase vulnerability to sudden shocks and limit access to international financing. Policymakers are forced into reactive measures rather than preventative strategies, increasing the likelihood of economic instability.
RedVDS operated as part of a rapidly expanding “cybercrime‑as‑a‑service” economy, providing criminals with unlicensed Windows‑based virtual machines that could be spun up, abandoned, and replaced in minutes. This infrastructure allowed fraud networks to move seamlessly across borders, evade detection, and industrialize scams that once required technical expertise.
Cyprus Political Funding Scandal
A video recently surfaced implicating the Cypriot president’s chief of staff in discussions about accepting donations in exchange for access to the presidency, prompting his resignation. The alleged payments were tied to influence over government contracts and ministerial appointments, suggesting a systematic attempt to monetize political access. Though Cyprus rarely dominates international headlines, the scandal highlights the risk of political bribery and influence peddling in small EU member states.
Investigators suggest the financial scale of the donations could total several million euros, paid by local and foreign interests seeking preferential treatment in infrastructure, energy, and real estate projects. The chief of staff allegedly acted as a conduit between private donors and the presidency, underscoring how high-level insiders can extract economic benefits through non-transparent political channels.
MIDDLE EAST
Syria Rewrites Its Map
Damascus reclaims Kurdish territory after year-long integration stalemate.
A 14-point ceasefire agreement reached after Syria’s largest oil fields seized.
Syria's government and Kurdish-led forces reached a 14-point ceasefire agreement Sunday after government troops seized the country's largest oil fields and advanced across northeastern provinces. The deal grants Damascus immediate control of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor provinces, all border crossings, and oil infrastructure that previously funded Kurdish autonomous administration.
The agreement marks a dramatic shift from early January, when the SDF rejected similar terms that would have allowed integration as organized units rather than individuals. Military pressure—including tribal uprisings in Arab-majority areas and government capture of the Omar oil field—stripped Kurdish forces of leverage before negotiations resumed
US officials, acting as intermediaries throughout the crisis, view the deal as essential to stabilizing Syria and enabling eventual American troop withdrawal from the northeast. Turkey, which considers the Kurdish YPG militia a terrorist extension of the PKK, had warned its patience was exhausted and threatened military intervention.
When revenue vanishes and allies pressure both sides, stalemate becomes untenable. Control of oil decided what negotiation could not.
WORLD
China’s Population Slide Deepens
Record-low births collide with pension deficits and workforce contraction.
China’s population declined, recording the lowest figure since 1949.
China recorded just 7.92 million births in 2025, down 17% from 2024 and the lowest figure since 1949, pushing the birth rate to 5.63 per 1,000 people. The population declined by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion—the fourth consecutive annual contraction—as deaths (11.31 million) outpaced births by widening margins.
Beijing's policy interventions have failed to reverse the trend despite cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child, expanded maternity leave, tax exemptions for childcare services, and even a 13% tax on contraceptives introduced in January 2025. Experts estimate China's fertility rate has fallen to around 1.0, well below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain population size.
Those aged 60 and above now comprise 323 million people—23% of the population—up one percentage point from 2024. The old-age dependency ratio has climbed to 22.8%, meaning fewer than four working-age individuals now support each retiree in China's pension system.
By 2040, an estimated 402 million Chinese will be over 60—exceeding the entire projected US population of 379 million—marking the end of China's comparative advantage in low-cost skilled labour. Fewer workers mean narrower policy options and shorter time horizons. What China cannot solve with young labour, it must solve with capital, automation, or strategic restraint.
💰 CORRUPTION, RACKETS & DUBIOUS FINANCE
DOJ Targets Trade & Customs Corruption
The US Department of Justice has intensified enforcement against trade‑ and customs-related corruption, targeting bribery of officials, tariff evasion, and the misuse of intermediaries. Recent cases illustrate the scale of illicit gains: Indonesian jewelry company UBS Gold allegedly evaded $86 million in US duties on $1.2 billion in imports, while Guyanese opposition figures used bribery to avoid $50 million in taxes and royalties on gold shipments. DOJ is leveraging FCPA, wire fraud, money laundering, and smuggling statutes to hold both corporate actors and individuals accountable, highlighting the global reach and profit potential of these schemes.
UK Investigators Target Home REIT Over Alleged £300m Fraud
Britain’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) and the National Crime Agency have launched a major bribery and fraud investigation into the former management of Home REIT, a UK‑listed social housing fund, over alleged financial misconduct worth up to £300 million. Prosecutors allege that former executives engaged in conduct that may have included bribery, improper financial reporting, and misdirection of investor funds tied to property purchases intended to house vulnerable people. The investigation reflects systemic risks when public‑purpose investment vehicles intersect with poorly regulated corporate governance and weak oversight.
CLIMATE & ENVIRONMENT
Trump’s Clean‑Energy Funding Cuts Blocked
US courts have struck down major climate funding rollbacks by the federal government.
Trump administration acted illegally in canceling clean energy grants in 16 states.
A federal judge has ruled that the Trump administration acted illegally in canceling about $7.6 billion in clean‑energy grants for projects in 16 states, finding the decisions violated the Constitution’s equal‑protection clause because they were based on partisan considerations. The grants supported hundreds of projects — from battery plants and hydrogen hubs to electric grid upgrades — that are core components of the country’s clean‑energy transition.
The judge’s decision forces the Energy Department to restore the cancelled funding, a significant rebuke to efforts to reshape federal climate policy by targeting programmes in states that supported Democratic candidates. In parallel, another federal judge ordered that construction resume on a major offshore wind project previously halted by the administration.
Courts are emerging as an active check on administrative climate rollbacks, reshaping national energy policy through legal oversight.
🕵️ INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALISM
Money Laundering Scheme Jeopardizes RM11.5bn Deal
Investigators have revealed that the Malaysian Anti‑Corruption Commission (MACC) is probing an alleged RM2.5 billion (£460 million) money laundering and corruption scheme involving executives at IJM Corporation, a major construction and infrastructure firm, potentially derailing a planned RM11.5 billion merger with Sunway Group. Scoop.my, a Malaysian investigative and news platform, reports that authorities have identified the IJM chairman and a company advisor as persons of interest in the case, which touches on suspected share price manipulation and complex cross‑border financial flows. The probe builds on earlier intelligence from the UK’s Serious Fraud Office, linking the scheme to broader patterns of corporate and financial misconduct that span multiple jurisdictions.
Ukrainian Anti‑Corruption Raid in Vote‑Bribery Investigation
The Financial Times reports that Ukraine’s top anti‑corruption investigators have raided party offices and opened a probe into a bribery and vote‑buying scheme allegedly orchestrated by former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko and associates, seeking to sway parliamentary support and weaken President Zelenskyy’s majority. Officials released recordings and seized materials that allegedly show coordination of payments and communications aimed at manipulating votes, though Tymoshenko denies the charges and calls the case politically motivated. The investigation comes amid a broader wave of corruption probes in Kyiv, raising concerns about political financing and the misuse of public influence ahead of possible elections.
THE WEEK TO JAN 20, 2026
Trending in the US
The week’s top searches follow a new format. We no longer list the most popular search terms like football results or entertainment news, but those that reflect deeper concerns or interests. Free subscribers see what’s trending; Premium subscribers get deeper analysis and forecasts.
1️⃣ Dr Martin Luther King Jr Day — 5M+ searches
Martin Luther King Jr. Day topped searches as Americans marked the federal holiday amid heightened political tensions, renewed civil-rights debates, nationwide events, and questions about how King’s legacy applies today.
2️⃣ Insurrection Act — 500K+ searches
Reports of troops on standby and renewed discussion of presidential emergency powers raised public concern about domestic military deployment and civil liberties.
3️⃣ 25th amendment — 100K+ searches
The 25th Amendment trended as speculation grew over presidential capacity, succession rules, and constitutional safeguards, driven by heightened political polarization and renewed public focus on executive stability. The 25th Amendment is part of the US Constitution that sets out what happens if a president dies, resigns, is removed, or becomes unable to carry out the duties of the office.
4️⃣ Iran — 100K+ searches
Mass protests over economic collapse and governance met lethal crackdowns, arrests, and internet restrictions raise fears of wider instability and regime stress.
5️⃣ Ben Affleck — 50K+ searches
Ben Affleck trended after explaining why he believes AI will never replace actors, arguing that human nuance, emotion, and shared experience remain essential in performance.
